000
AXNT20 KNHC 251155
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N15W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 9N19W TO 6N30W 5N40W AND
5N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 
45W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 53W/54W NORTHWESTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA TO 16N.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
53W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...TO 26N70W TO CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT 
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM CAT ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY 
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 23N90W...CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W 
AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF 19N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N80W 26N90W 21N97W 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF 
THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE 
FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA COASTAL 
WATERS NEAR 12N74W TO 10N81W...BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA 
BORDER. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL 
WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO 
THE WEST OF 70W.

FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
 
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE 
AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF 
50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST
OF 80W. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH 
OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY 
MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 
26N31W 22N29W AND 18N33W. A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ENDS...AND
A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 31N30W AND CONTINUES TO 25N33W 
19N39W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT