000
AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 7N17W TO 6N30W AND 6N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W
FROM 6N TO 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...TO 26N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT 
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY 
FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 22N90W...CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W 
AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 
25N80W 26N90W 20N97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF 
THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE 
FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA FROM 
10N76W BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS
FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
 
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE 
AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF 
50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
WESTERLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST
OF 80W. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING FROM 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH 
OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY 
MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 
22N32W AND 19N33W. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 31N30W AND
CONTINUES TO 25N34W 19N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N
BETWEEN 20W AND 33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT