000 AXNT20 KNHC 241145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL/WESTERN GUINEA-BISSAU TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CURVES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W AND 6N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N47W 11N49W 6N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 2N50W TO 11N44W TO 14N50W TO 6N52W TO 2N50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W... AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 20N97W AND IT CONTINUES INLAND TO 23N101W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W...TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 25N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH 23N91W AND 19N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 14N75W TO A 13N83W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THAT TROUGH NOW STILL IS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA FROM 10N/11N ALONG 75W TO 10N80W...BEYOND THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 74W. FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO- CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N60W 17N70W 14N80W...TO 13N AT THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 24N37W AND 20N39W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 996 MB STORM LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N31W TO 30N32W 25N38W AND 22N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N40W 25N30W BEYOND 32N26W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 23N57W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 26N22W TO 18N29W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA TO 7N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT