000 AXNT20 KNHC 240553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 5N25W 5N46W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N43W 12N47W 7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 9N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N81W IN FLORIDA JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 20N97W AND IT CONTINUES INLAND TO 22N101W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 29N75W 26N90W 23N94W 20N97W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 14N75W TO A 13N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OF THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT WAS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD COASTAL NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALSO IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW REGIME THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LAST DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THAT TROUGH NOW STILL IS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH COLOMBIA ALONG 11N75W TO 10N81W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MERGING WITH THE EASTERN-TO- CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA OF THE EQUATOR IN NORTHERN BRAZIL TO THE WEST OF 50W...ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE FLOW CHANGES TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N60W 17N70W 14N80W...TO 13N AT THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY AFTER EXITING FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 23N39W AND 20N43W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N34W TO 27N37W AND 22N43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N47W 24N34W 29N30W BEYOND 32N28W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 26N55W AND 22N57W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 25N24W TO 14N32W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO TO MAURITANIA TO 8N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT