000 AXNT20 KNHC 231200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 5N30W AND 4N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/45W FROM 4N TO 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 12N TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL SURINAME. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO EAST CENTRAL COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N97W 22N97W 25N94W 27N90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...THROUGH 29N78W OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N72W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N78W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 11N TO 16N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA LINE...PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N...TO THE WEST OF 77W...AND ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N47W TO 20N57W. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N42W IS SURROUNDED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N42W AND 22N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N48W TO 19N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 24N38W TO 18N50W TO 15N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N71W...THROUGH 29N78W OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MAURITANIA TO 9N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT