000 AXNT20 KNHC 221150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W. THE LOW CENTER IS CONNECTED TO A WARM FRONT THAT CURVES AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO 32N47W AND 33N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 33N40W TO 32N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N53W AND SINT EUSTATIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N53W TO 20N60W...ACROSS ANGUILLA TO 17N66W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 17N66W TO 15N74W...TO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N52W 21N48W 24N46W 28N45W... ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER FORECAST WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO 14 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 4N33W AND 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N37W 9N38W 6N39W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM HURRICANE KENNETH THAT IS NEAR 13N113W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A MEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ANGUILLA TO 17N66W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 17N66W TO 15N74W...TO EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N53W AND SINT EUSTATIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA LINE...PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N63W TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS 11N75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 9N77W... AND THEN ALONG 9N/10N FROM 77W BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N76W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N8W...ACROSS NORTHERN MAURITANIA TO 10N23W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT