000 AXNT20 KNHC 220539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. THE LOW CENTER IS CONNECTED TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT CURVES AWAY FROM THE CENTER TO 32N48W AND 33N42W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 33N42W TO 33N33W AND 31N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWEST- WARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N51W 22N54W AND BARBUDA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N55W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 16N73W ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. AN AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N73W TO 15N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N53W 20N49W 24N47W 30N48W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER FORECAST WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 TO 15 FT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL HAS SOME FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 3N31W 7N50W...TO NORTHERN SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N37W 9N38W 6N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W... AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM HURRICANE KENNETH THAT IS NEAR 13N112W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A MEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 29N88W...TO 24N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO 16N73W ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. AN AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N73W TO 15N77W TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH 22N54W...AND BARBUDA IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N75W AND 13N83W AT THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. LARGE-SCALE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE MONA PASSAGE-TO-NICARAGUA LINE...PUSHING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SOUTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N67W 14N69W TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N75W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 10N26W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT