000 AXNT20 KNHC 211156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N52W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N54W AND 19N60W...ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N55W 24N58W 18N62W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR 24 HOURS...WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CENTER GRADUALLY MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS/BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 9N30W 9N40W AND 7N52W...ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W...WHICH IS ALONG THE CENTER OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 32N78W HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. THE RIDGE GOES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO WESTERN GEORGIA...AND IT ULTIMATELY CONTINUES INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 21N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 19N60W... ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N60W 14N66W 14N73W 18N70W...IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM 11N74W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 10N80W AND BEYOND COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N FROM 74W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW AND CLOUD MOVEMENTS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N78W ABOUT 170 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MAURITANIA...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT