000 AXNT20 KNHC 210611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N53W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER BEYOND 32N50W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N57W AND 16N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 13N TO 21N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N55W 26N57W 18N61W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND THE TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 420 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CENTER GRADUALLY MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS/BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. IT WILL BE MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU...TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 8N24W 9N30W 7N40W 8N45W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM KENNETH THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 94W...WHICH IS ALONG THE CENTER OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 32N87W 29N94W 28N97W RIDGE. THIS RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE 24N53W LOW CENTER THAT IS THE SPECIAL FEATURE...TO 20N57W AND 16N65W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N60W 15N66W 13N70W 14N73W 18N70W...IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N FROM 75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N79W ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW CENTER WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGHS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SPECIAL FEATURE WEATHER SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MAURITANIA...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 12N30W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE DATA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT