000 AXNT20 KNHC 190545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 52W/53W IS NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. SEE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION BELOW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N17W ALONG 6N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-32W AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MOISTURE NOTED IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 90W-97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N96W TO JUST INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-22N W OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA COAST WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 26N92W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 87W AND ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-NE INTO THE W ATLC SAT AND MAINTAIN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A DISTINCT BOUNDARY OF DRY MOSTLY STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-86W USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ALSO USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE N CARIBBEAN AND N OF THE LEEWARDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 31N62W TO 28N70W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N55W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N56W EXTENDING S INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR BARBADOS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 28N55W TO 33N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO WITHIN THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N54W 19N53W 13N53W TO 10N52W. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM NEAR 10N39W ALONG 21N43W TO BEYOND 32N47W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250/275 NM OF LINE FROM 10N48W 23N50W TO BEYOND 32N50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE E ATLC TO 20N E OF 34W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N16W TO 20N27W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N35W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT EVENING. ELONGATED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. A LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NE MON AND TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW