000
AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N51W 11N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 11N20W AND 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W TO 4N29W
TO 3N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N73W...TO FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF 
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND FINALLY THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE 
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE
HAS BUILT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TEXAS TO MEXICO...THROUGH
THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS...TO 22N98W AND 19N96W. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 20N55W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N60W TO THE EAST OF 
MARTINIQUE...TO 13N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE 
NORTHERN PART OF VENEZUELA...WHERE AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS HAVE 
BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 17N...TO THE SOUTH OF 
JAMAICA...TO 12N. THE MONSOON TROUGH GOES FROM 11N75W AT THE 
COLOMBIA COAST...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N79W AND ACROSS THE 
PENINSULA DE AZUERO OF PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE 
WEST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE SURFACE 
TRADEWIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N73W...TO 
FLORIDA JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND THEN INTO THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
90 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N49W 24N53W...TO A 20N55W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND 14N60W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N51W 26N52W 23N52W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL PRECIPITATION CELLS FROM
14N51W TO 16N49W AND 18N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 18N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N8W 
IN MOROCCO...THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO SOUTHWESTERN 
COASTAL MAURITANIA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST
OF THE 29N51W 23N52W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT