000
AXNT20 KNHC 171719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST THU NOV 17 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. 
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT AREA OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SURFACE 
FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN 40W-53W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES WEST AFRICA AND EXTENDS FROM 
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 
4N30W TO 4N40W TO 9N47W TO 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-8N 
BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 
36W-40W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 53W-60W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA 
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 
31N81W 26N85W 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. 25-30 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE 
FRONT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
ALSO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE 
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT OVER 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO 
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.   
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 
10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO 
GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... 
PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS 
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
FLORIDA N OF 28N AND W OF 77W DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N45W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
29N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 
29N49W 21N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
23N-29N BETWEEN 41W-51W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N28W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM 30N68W TO S FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA