000
AXNT20 KNHC 161737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED NOV 16 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. 
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT AREA OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V SURFACE 
FEATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 36W-46W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH TRAVERSES WEST AFRICA AND EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTHERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
9N19W TO 5N30W TO 8N40W TO 7N50W TO 9N60W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W 
...AND FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 46W-60W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE MOUTH OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
33N87W 28N90W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
15 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OUTSIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE...10-15 KT 
SE-S-SW WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT... 
A COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO RUSH 
EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS 
WITH CONVECTION. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 
11N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO 
GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... 
PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N42W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 
S FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 
27N46W 19N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
24N-29N BETWEEN 41W-49W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N16W TO 29N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD 
FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC FROM N FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA