000 AXNT20 KNHC 152355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST WITH THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W ALONG 6N21W 6N39W TO 10N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 215 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-39W AND WITHIN 215 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 32W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER W CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W AND EXTENDS AN AXIS NE OVER THE W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER E TEXAS N OF 26N ALONG 95W MOVING RAPIDLY NE. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW THAT AT 15/2100 UTC IS JUST E OF AUSTIN TEXAS AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR GALVESTON TO 25N96W. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND RETURN FLOW TO THE GULF W OF 93W. REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE SW GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU AND WILL DISSIPATE ALONG 25N FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS A PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 71W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE NICARAGUA TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W INDUCING AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES AND DIVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE N AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO THE S ALONG A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT VINCENT ALONG 12N70W 13N78W TO 18N85W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM 17N85W TO 12N79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 11N80W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL KEEP FRESH NE TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THU AS THE RIDGE RETREATS E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 24N60W TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 19N62W THEN CONTINUING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO 19N58W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N60W TO 22N57W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N45W TO 21N49W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-28W BETWEEN 40W-52W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N WITH A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N32W TO 28N41W ALL SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N23W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU REACHING FROM 32N70W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA FRI MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL AMPLIFY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS W INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER E WILL DRIFT THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW