000
AXNT20 KNHC 151703
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N30W 
TO 6N40W TO 9N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W...FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 20W-38W...AND 
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 96W-100W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND FROM N LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS 
IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 
11N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 67W-70W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN70W-80W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N46W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 30N37W TO 28N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 26N53W 
20N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-28N 
BETWEEN 49W-60W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N26W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA