000 AXNT20 KNHC 150554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU IN AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 10N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N18W TO 5N32W AND 6N42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 67W...SPANNING THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CUBA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 67W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N64W...TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 63W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST BEYOND 10N IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY IS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N57W TO 20N60W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 19N60W AND PASSES THROUGH 26N50W AND BEYOND 32N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N51W 24N55W 19N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N63W 25N52W BEYOND 32N43W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W...MOVING AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N25W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N38W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...AND IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N44W 18N46W 9N48W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH FEEDS INTO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FLOW THAT IS HEADING TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE 23N44W 9N48W TROUGH AND PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT