000 AXNT20 KNHC 142355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W EXTENDING ALONG 9N17W 6N32W TO 9N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 19W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING AN AXIS NE TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND RETURN FLOW TO THE GULF AGAIN THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E TUE AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AND DISSIPATE ALONG 25N ON FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 70W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE S EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO NE COLOMBIA INDUCING A SHEAR AXIS TO THE N ALONG 17N DIVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE N AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR TO THE S AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER THEN CROSSES INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL AMPLIFY AS IT DRIFTS W TO THE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN BETWEEN 50W-68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 58W-65W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 18N54W NE TO BEYOND 32N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N54W TO 19N57W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-28W BETWEEN 48W-58W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N49W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N29W. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC THU AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA FRI THEN DISSIPATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW