000
AXNT20 KNHC 141705
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 9N20W 
TO 6N35W TO 8N48W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 20W-37W...AND FROM 9N-13N 
BETWEEN 37W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM N 
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER 
MOST OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST 
OF E LOUISIANA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND 
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W.   
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N 
BETWEEN 80W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 70W-80W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS  
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-67W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY. 
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N54W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
30N42W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 25N53W 19N56W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 
50W-55W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N30W. 
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA