000
AXNT20 KNHC 141144
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON NOV 14 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU IN AFRICA
NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 5N32W AND 
6N42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 
16W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST
TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST/THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
UNTIL 72 HOURS INTO THE FUTURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N59W IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 19N67W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA 
PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 
REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE 
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW IS LEFT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE 
SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG
11N75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 10N78W...TO 11N82W...BEYOND 
10N85W IN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COASTS
OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. OTHER STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
60 NM TO 220 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN 
NICARAGUA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO 
THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 
26N59W TO 19N67W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 
28N50W AND 25N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 32N
BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 23N51W...
17N51W...10N49W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND
53W...AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT