000 AXNT20 KNHC 140002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N15W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N15W ALONG 5N23W 5N32W 8N37W TO 6N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N E OF 36W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDING TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND RETURN FLOW TO THE GULF THIS EVENING. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN PATCHES ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NW GULF LATE TUE THROUGH WED. FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NW GULF THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER N GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN E/W UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO THE YUCATAN JUST N OF BELIZE BRINGING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS. HOWEVER...BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS JUST TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS AREA IS THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W THROUGH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N77W THEN CROSSES PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N78W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W INCLUDING E JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-71W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA BECOMING MORE E/W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 65-73W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM N OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N55W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 27N53W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 24N60W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N52W TO NEAR 17N53W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO 20N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 50W-53W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N38W TO 16N41W WITHOUT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC WITH 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N37W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR W ATLC EARLY THU AND REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA