000
AXNT20 KNHC 131714
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DATE CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W 
TO 5N30W TO 8N38W TO 8N45W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 13W-28W...AND FROM 
4N-12N BETWEEN 28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM N 
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ARE OVER 
MOST OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. 
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 76W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 66W-70W. BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA FROM 
17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-78W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE 
LOW TO REMAIN STATIONARY. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND 
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N66W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
30N49W TO 26N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 25N51W 21N53W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 
44W-51W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W 
MOVING SE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE W TO 30N43W WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA