000
AXNT20 KNHC 121725
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W 7N27W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
7N27W TO 7N50W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT E-SE 
WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE 
GULF AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. 
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS ARE OVER THE W GULF 
W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS. EXPECT...CONTINUED 
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...W HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 
85W-92W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W TO THE GULF OF URABA. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 6N-15N BETWEEN 
78W-81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 
14N AND E OF 65W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE 
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N57W TO E CUBA NEAR 
21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1026 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N40W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 27N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 23N29W 19N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N14W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N16W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE W TO 30N50W 
WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE OVER TO 
W AFRICA.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA