000 AXNT20 KNHC 121133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N22W ALONG 6N33W TO 5N46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE SE CONES DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. THE STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF TAMPICO AND W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NE GULF WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF THROUGH TUE...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF TUESDAY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS ALONG 22N80W TO 16N86W. AT THE SAME TIME...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THUS NO DEEP CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 17N72W TO INLAND OVER NRN COLOMBIA 10N73W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THIS SAME REGION IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 75W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N61W BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 26N72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE W AND E OF THE FRONT IS LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH A NARROW SWATH OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 45W-51W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS 32N17W TO 26N26W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N30W 19N36W 22N45W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM COMES FROM AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IN THE TROPICS THAT IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N FROM THE ITCZ WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN E OF 30W. THE WRN ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ON MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ATLC EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA