000
AXNT20 KNHC 111739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EDT FRI NOV 11 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 11/1500 UTC IS NEAR 34.8N 
62.5W...OR ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NE OF BERMUDA. SEAN IS MOVING 
NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER 
THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER 
THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 
KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 
31N-35N BETWEEN 60W-63W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N16W IN GUINEA-BISSAU TO 
8N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N20W TO 6N40W TO 6N50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 12W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 
25N80W 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. 10-20 
KT NE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND WEAKEST WINDS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER.  
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 
28N...WHILE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD 
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT NEAR THE 
COLD FRONT. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OVER 
THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND S OF THE COLD 
FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NE 
NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE 
MARACAIBO VENEZUELA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO E 
HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 69W-71W. A MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 77W-82W. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE TO CENTRAL CUBA 
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W...AND 
FOR THE MONSOON TROUGH TO REMAIN IN PLACE.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W TO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 44N47W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO 25N45W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 30N19W 23N34W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT THE 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 30N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA IN 
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA