000 AXNT20 KNHC 101145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EDT THU NOV 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 10/1200 UTC IS NEAR 30.3N 70.7W. SEAN IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 59W AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN 84W/85W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH OTHER NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT ALREADY IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT IS AROUND THE AREA OF SEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CENTER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE REST OF THE BROAD LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS SEAN...FROM 17N TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...INCLUDING AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N16W IN GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 5N31W TO 7N46W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 7N43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM THE 16N38W CENTER...FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 84W/85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N83W TO 25N86W AND 21N90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...FROM 26N TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT ONLY REACHES OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS AT THE MOMENT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FEET...AND THEN FROM 12 TO 17 FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N68W TO A SHEAR ZONE NEAR 13N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE REST OF THE BROAD LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS SEAN...FROM 17N TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...INCLUDING AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 18N69W NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N76W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS WITH COMPARATIVELY COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW/TROUGH THAT IS AROUND T.S. SEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS... TO 27N30W... TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 32N TO THE EAST OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 16N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 7N41W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION ALSO IS NEAR THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT