000
AXNT20 KNHC 091146
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EDT WED NOV 09 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 09/1200 UTC IS NEAR 
27.8N 70.5W. SEAN IS MOVING WESTWARD 3 KT...ABOUT 400 NM TO THE 
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 55 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER THE
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH 
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N 
TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO 
TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 
13N16W TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 6N32W TO 
5N47W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 
7.5N15W...FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 
13N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 14N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 7N43W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
TO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO 
AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS 
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 14N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...
AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 17N IN 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 
67W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SURROUNDS T.S. SEAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE 
EAST OF 65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 13N70W TO 11N75W 
TO 11N80W BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN 
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND THE COASTS 
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE MADEIRA 
ARCHIPELAGO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 28N26W AND 24N46W. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT