000
AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EDT WED NOV 09 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN AT 09/0600 UTC IS NEAR 
27.9N 70.3W. SEAN IS MOVING WESTWARD 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 
ABOUT SEAN IS IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCMAT4...AND UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC. THE PUBLIC 
ADVISORY IS LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...AND UNDER 
THE WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W 
AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W...AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN 
SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 32N
BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL/GAMBIA NEAR 
13N17W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 8N26W TO 6N37W
TO 8N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 51W. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 14N38W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 7N43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 
28W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH KANSAS TO 
OKLAHOMA...AND WEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT IS PASSING THROUGH EAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL 
PLAINS...AND SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N95W BEYOND
32N91W ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND 
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 14N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N NEAR PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 63W AND 
66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 11N74W ALONG THE COLOMBIA 
COAST TO 11N80W...BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9.5N
TO 12N BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME 
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W...AND FROM COASTAL PANAMA NEAR
9N TO 11N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 31N19W. 
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MADEIRA 
ARCHIPELAGO...THROUGH 30N20W TO 27N30W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM 27N30W TO 25N42W AND 29N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
44W AND 47W...AND FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
47W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT