000 AXNT20 KNHC 082349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2335 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM SEAN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.8N 69.8W...OR ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KTS. SEAN IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY LISTED UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC. SEAN IS DOMINATING THE WRN ATLC PRODUCING A LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 65W-73W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 8N20W 7N30W 5N40W TO 7N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE NW GULF WATERS...OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LINE COMPOSED OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG GALVESTON BAY TO NEAR 26N95W. THE SEVERE WEATHER IS FOCUSED INLAND ACROSS ERN TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS STILL MOVING ACROSS ESE TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA. SSE SURFACE FLOW 10-20 KT IF OBSERVED IN THE WRN GULF W OF 90W. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE OF THE COMING FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GREAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. AT LOWER LEVELS TPW PRODUCT DISPLAYS MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES PRESENT OVER THE SW...CENTRAL...AND ERN BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY...LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL BASINS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ERN BASIN...IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N63W TO 12N65W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 73W... ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE MODEL DATA SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM SEAN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WRN ATLC WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND A GUSTY CYCLONIC WIND FIELD W OF 62W. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SURROUNDING T.S. SEAN...GENERATING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO 24N63W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE EAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 53W-63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ENE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N20W TO 27N30W BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT ALONG 25N40W 27N50W TO 30N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA