000 AXNT20 KNHC 071202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EDT MON NOV 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N68W... ABOUT 650 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER BEYOND THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N68W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N70W AND THE TRIPLE POINT 31N63W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N63W TO 29N57W. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 24N65W AND BEYOND 20N69W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ENDING IN WESTERN JAMAICA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM 18 TO 21 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N67W 23N65W 26N61W BEYOND 32N57W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IS FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1...AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N20W TO 7N23W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N23W TO 5N31W AND 5N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THE WEST CENTRAL AREA...AND FINALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 16N71W AND 13N75W...ABOUT 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N69W...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CENTRAL HAITI...TO WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 67W/68W FROM 11N TO 16N. THIS TROUGH MAY BE THE REMNANT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N74W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 10N77W AND 11N82W...BEYOND EASTERN COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N68W...ABOUT 650 NM TO THE EAST OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM 18 TO 21 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N34W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N34W TO 28N40W AND 25N50W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 25N40W 20N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 15N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 8N41W AND 6N43W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N48W 13N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N55W 9N56W. THIS TROUGH SHOWS UP IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N18W...THROUGH 30N23W TO 24N30W TO 19N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT