000 AXNT20 KNHC 061741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N70W TO 17N67W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE AND ITS ENERGY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CONTINUE TO SHEAR ENERGY TO THE NE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 05N37W TO 03N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 24W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS ALONG 90W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE PENNSYLVANIA...THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND ALONG 30N86W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC IN SUPPORT OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N70W ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION TO NORTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W. WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...THE FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO INITIATE OR SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE ONLY LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS SW OF THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 81W-83W...AND FARTHER SOUTH FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTAINS A DISSIPATING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W WITH ENERGY CONTINUING TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF A LINE FROM 18N67W TO 12N72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 32N69W TO 20N73W. BENEATH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AN OCCLUDED 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO 30N65W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW ALONG 25N66W TO NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 29N59W. ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND THE OVERALL STRONGER WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE LOW...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC...SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N46W TO 29N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 33N42W TO 25N54W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/1248 UTC INDICATED THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER AN AREA FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 48W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N21W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 25N33W TO NEAR 17N58W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN