000 AXNT20 KNHC 052346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N59W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO 11N63W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES A BROAD AREA BETWEEN 45W-70W AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N15W ALONG 8N17W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N22W ALONG 6N33W TO 8N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 11N BETWEEN 21W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER GEORGIA AND NW FLORIDA ALONG 28N90W TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO WITH MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD MON AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND FROM N FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE N COAST OF CUBA WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N71W ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 13N74W TO COLOMBIA/PANAMA NEAR 10N75W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 18N85W TO 17N87W. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 11N W OF 80W TO OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE MON AND THROUGH WED. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN AS IT WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N71W SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS E FROM A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N72W AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N66W ALONG 26N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS IT CROSSES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 27N73W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N51W TO 27N59W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N35W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 20N67W TO 26N59W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 250/325 NM OF LINE FROM 20N56W TO BEYOND 32N40W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH 400 NM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SURFACE LOW IN THE W ATLC WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SE WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT SW TO HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE SUN INTO MON AND DRIFT W TUE AND WED WITH FRONTAL TROUGH TO HISPANIOLA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW