000 AXNT20 KNHC 051743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM NEAR 19N58W ACROSS MARTINIQUE TO 12N63W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES PRESENT BETWEEN 56W-63W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 54W-62W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS THE WAVE MOVES WWD NEAR 10 KT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA AND INTO THE ERN ATLC ALONG 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG 7N29W 8N39W 7N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEAVING COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE THE LAND MASSES REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THERE IS MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH STRONGER WINDS BUILDING OVER THE ERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO NRN HONDURAS ALONG 20N84W 16N87W. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...THE FRONT IS ONLY SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84-87W. THE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDS EWD TO 72W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 17N69W TO 13N71W. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH UNDER THE DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 66W-71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 62W FROM 13N-15N. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE WRN ATLC TODAY SUPPORTING A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N73W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW ALONG 31N69W 26N72W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N BETWEEN 61W-68W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N77W DEPICTING A SECOND WIND SHIFT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NE OF THE CENTER. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS ALONG 31N47W TO 25N59W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N58W TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N22W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 26N31W TO 11N40W CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON