000
AXNT20 KNHC 051144
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N59W TO W OF TRINIDAD NEAR 
10N62W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL DEFINED BY LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W...THEN CONTINUES TO 8N20W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N20W TO 6N30W TO 7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W...AND FROM 
3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT JUST TRAVERSED THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO W CUBA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT ALONG THE 
COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF 
THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES 
ARE IN THE 40'S OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN THE 70'S 
OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE 
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N80W 19N87W 18N93W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM N OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL 
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-87W. FURTHER 
S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
68W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE 
NW WITH CONVECTION.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N70W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
N OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 30N51W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N24W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 19N-30N BETWEEN 44W-50W. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A GALE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC 
AND BE NEAR 29N70W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONTS 
TO MOVE E.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA