000
AXNT20 KNHC 050519
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SAT NOV 05 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N57W TO W OF BARBADOS NEAR 
13N60W TO 9N60W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED 
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL DEFINED BY LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-20N 
BETWEEN 54W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 5N20W TO 7N30W TO 8N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 5N08N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 22W-40W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-7N 
BETWEEN 36W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N80W 20N88W 
18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE FRONT. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A 
GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S 
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN THE 70'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF 
SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS JUST W OF BARBADOS. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-87W. 
FURTHER S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA 
RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N 
BETWEEN 68W-71W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE 
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N52W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N24W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N38W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE 
CENTER FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 45W-51W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 
GALE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC AND BE NEAR 29N70W WITH 
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA