000 AXNT20 KNHC 042348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N54W ALONG 15N58W TO 9N59W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE TROPICAL ATLC. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/225 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N21W TO 8N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 16W-25W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 32W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 90W INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR EVERGLADES CITY EXTENDING ALONG 22N86W TO 21N93W BECOMING STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW ACROSS CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE N GULF. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONVERGING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 93W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW GULF WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT E SUN AND MON WHILE WEAKENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING REACHING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY WED MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HAITI TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-71W. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS...TRINIDADA AND TOBAGO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 11N TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SUN AS IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON THEN WEAKEN LATE MON INTO TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/2100 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1000 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 32N75W CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND EVERGLADES CITY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER E GEORGIA AND NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 29N56W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 25N63W TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N68W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W ALONG 21N55W TO BEYOND 32N42W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 325 NM W OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH AND FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 45W TO OVER W AFRICA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E THROUGH TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 31N72W BY SAT MORNING AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SE BY SUN MORNING WITH WEAKENING FRONT TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE SUN INTO MON THEN DRIFT W TUE WITH FRONTAL TROUGH TO HISPANIOLA. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND WEAKEN THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW