000
AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI NOV 04 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 14N57W 8N60W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE COASTAL 
PLAINS OF GUYANA TO 9N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N19W 
AND 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 6N28W AND 8N40W.  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 3N
TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHWESTERN 
SOUTH CAROLINA...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N80W...
TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 28N...TO THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.
THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A CLEAR LINE OF ADVANCING CLOUDINESS 
AND BY THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N68W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...ACROSS HAITI TO 17N75W...INTO THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N71W TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF THE 
COUNTRY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO 
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N69W 
12N75W...AND 12N84W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
OCCURRING IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO AND IN 
THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA DURING 
PARTS OF THE LAST SIX HOURS. MOST OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS 
WEAKENED. SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
BOTH AREAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N73W IN THE COLOMBIA 
COASTAL WATERS...THROUGH 9N IN PANAMA...ACROSS PANAMA...AND 
BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA ALONG 9N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
TO THE WEST OF 79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS
OF 16N65W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W TO 23N70W...ACROSS HAITI 
TO 17N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N52W 25N65W BEYOND 20N69W...CONTINUING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST 
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 400 TO 600 NM TO 
THE EAST OF THE 32N52W 20N69W LINE...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
WIND FLOW. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W IN WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 8N TO 20N BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A 1024 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT