000 AXNT20 KNHC 040556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI NOV 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N55W TO 16N53W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 53W-57W. AS THE WAVE MOVES BENEATH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO 09N-11N BETWEEN 56W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N20W TO 08N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 26W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 04/0300 UTC FROM APALACHICOLA BAY NEAR 30N85W SW TO 23N94W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR VERACRUZ. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT AND SO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT CARRIES ONLY LOW TOPPED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE PLENTIFUL S OF 25N W OF 91W AS THE FRONT FALLS BENEATH MORE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 04/0244 UTC SHOWS STRONG N-NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WATERS WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS S OF 21N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 25N70W TO A BASE NEAR 12N78W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH WITH NW FLOW WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING W OF 74W. HOWEVER WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM OF THE NORTHERN HONDURAS AND EASTERN GUATEMALA COASTS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER NORTH FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FALLS EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THEREFORE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE REGION...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 62W-69W IN RESPONSE TO MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N72W. THE RIDGE AXIS CARRIES SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W WITH MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING W OF 65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 20N74W IN SUPPORT OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND THE FRONT WHILE FARTHER SW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA NE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS CONTROLLED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 40W-48W. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG 31N09W TO 24N25W WITH STRONG NW WINDS REMAINING N OF 30N AND E OF 25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN