000 AXNT20 KNHC 032351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU NOV 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N51W TO 7N55W MOVING NW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N17W ALONG 8N30W TO 7N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 7N12W TO 6N15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 25W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N W OF 83W WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N91W 23N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ALONG 89W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ALL BUT THE SW GULF. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONVERGING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 92W. ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER NW TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING THE E GULF AND THE FAR NW GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING THEN MOVE SE OF THE GULF FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN WILL SHIFT E SUN AND MON. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN S ACROSS CUBA TO PANAMA ALONG 78W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER SE CUBA AND JAMAICA MOVING INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 59W IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 62W-73W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM A 1006 MB LOW INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W THEN S INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W TO 27N65W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 27N63W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N FROM OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 59W TO 24N THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N62W TO BEYOND 32N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR E ATLC TO OVER AFRICA N OF 24N E OF 20W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N10W JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N15W TO 24N26W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N35W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC FRI REACHING FROM OFF NE FLORIDA TO NEAR W PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY FRI EVENING REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE SAT THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH N OF THE GRATER ANTILLES LATER ON SUN INTO LATE MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW