000 AXNT20 KNHC 031128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU NOV 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 06N52W TO 16N48W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 47W-54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 43W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 11N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N20W TO 04N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 26W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ALONG 90W TO 25N THEN NE OVER THE SE CONUS. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WHICH LARGELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE SW GULF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 24N W OF 90W. MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 30 NM SOUTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WHICH ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS THROUGH TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH IS PROVIDING THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-88W. E OF 76W...UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 59W-66W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 66W-73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM 37N62W S-SW TO A BASE OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W TO 28N65W THEN BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AROUND 03/0124 UTC AND 03/0304 UTC INDICATED STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE TO 27N BETWEEN 70W-83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 66W. FARTHER SE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N68W TO 27N63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 59W-66W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 55W-63W. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N40W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 40W TO 18N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 48W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N12W TO 27N25W TO 25N35W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN