000
AXNT20 KNHC 021722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT WED NOV 02 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N42W 4N48W 4N48W.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W
AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N18W
TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 6N24W TO 4N31W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE 
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA. THIS FLOW REGIME HAS RESULTED FROM THE PASSAGE OF THE 
TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE LAST COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 93W AND 
95W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE...AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
26N75W...TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W
TO 29N66W TO 26N71W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N71W...ACROSS 
SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...CROSSING CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
FROM 10N NEAR COSTA RICA TO 16N/17N NEAR EASTERN HONDURAS. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH CURVES ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 13N73W...TO 
10N80W...CUTTING THROUGH COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COLOMBIA 
COAST TO THE WEST OF 73W...AND IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 
81W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 16N73W...THROUGH 12N77W...TO THE PANAMA 
COAST ALONG 79W/80W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 62W AND 
72W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE 
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...
AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS. 
 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR 
23N53W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N64W 24N65W 20N66W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 72W...JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN 
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 28N22W. 
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
29N30W TO 28N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N15W 29N26W 28N36W 30N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES 
WESTERN SAHARA AND MAURITANIA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 
17N18W AND 9N22W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT