000 AXNT20 KNHC 021145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED NOV 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N46W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 37W-49W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N17W TO 04N28W TO 04N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 15W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. WHILE DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 38N78W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N90W TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 22N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO FOCUS IN THE VICINITY OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM 22N82W TO 20N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 79W-88W. FARTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N-16N ALONG 83W WITH CONVERGENT TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 81W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM 20N70W TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N79W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING BETWEEN 64W-74W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCUPIES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 10N FROM A TROPICAL ATLC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 09N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N78W. AS OF 02/0900 UTC...THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N65W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N63W TO 27N70W TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 29N70W TO 27N79W AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. AN EARLIER 02/0146 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTH AND WEST OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS WITH THIS WIND FIELD COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING. SE OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N66W TO 28N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 60W-66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N11W TO 25N30W TO 27N46W. NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM AN INTENSE 970 MB LOW LOCATED IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N23W TO 28N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN