000 AXNT20 KNHC 010544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE NOV 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 02N40W TO 10N37W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LARGELY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-41W. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE AXIS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 35W-41W. CONVECTION LOCATED FARTHER EAST IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 12N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N18W TO 09N25W TO 08N38W TO 06N45W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 20W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 45W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TO A BASE NEAR 24N94W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR AND MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING REMAINS UNDER DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE SE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF 25N E OF 88W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF 81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 34N88W. N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE EASTERN AND SW GULF WITH LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS OVER THE NW GULF OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 77W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE OVER CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W. WHILE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR CANCUN MEXICO TO 18N87W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 16N19N BETWEEN 85W-88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FARTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS ALONG COASTAL HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 17N86W TO 15N83W TO 10N82W. EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N72W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADDED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 63W-72W...AND S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-76W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA S-SW OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 01/0300 UTC THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N75W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E-NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 32N66W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OCCURRING NORTH OF THE WARM FROM BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 60W-77W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO 29N81W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 24N W OF 70W BY LATE TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N30W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS E OF 50W...HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N56W TO 21N55W AS A REFLECTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENERGY IN A SHEAR ZONE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 37W-52W EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 56W-64W WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 01/0024 UTC DEPICTED 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 49W-62W. 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