000
AXNT20 KNHC 312358
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 2N-10N 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 30W-38W.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 13N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 
9N25W 9N35W 6N45W 10N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN 
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 21W-30W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS E OF TRINIDAD ALONG 58W S OF 11N PRODUCING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 50W-60W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N80W 24N82W 
21N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
45 NM OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 88W. 
CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF N OF FRONT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF MOVING E SUPPORTING THE COLD 
FRONT. EXPECT ...THE FRONT TO DRIFT E FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
AND W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT FROM 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
COSTA RICA NEAR 11N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW 
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N83W 19N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-22N BETWEEN 
82W-88W. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 60W-65W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF A COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH 
CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
TO REMAIN WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
NEAR 29N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO S FLORIDA 
NEAR 26N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 29N70W 
30N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 
74W-80W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 21N53W 14N55W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 
45W-50W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N30W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE WELL 
NE OF THE AREA WHILE THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
30N68W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA