000 AXNT20 KNHC 311154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 12N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N20W TO 06N30W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 11W-27W..AND FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 27W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 44W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER SE LOUISIANA TO A BASE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER FARTHER EAST...AS OF 31/0900 UTC A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N84W TO THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND PROVIDE THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY S OF 28N E OF 88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ON MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...N TO NE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING. LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW GULF MOVES EASTWARD...THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 79W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N56W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 17N83W. WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 20N86W. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N81W TO 16N83W TO 19N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS MORNING S OF 18N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 81W. THIS STRONGER PRECIPITATION WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING TO EASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N71W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADDED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 63W-71W...AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-75W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N60W SW ALONG 26N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM SOUTH AND EAST...AND S OF 30N W OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N36W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N51W TO 23N48W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 40W-45W...AND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 45W-53W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 31/0044 UTC DEPICTED 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 38W-62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN