000
AXNT20 KNHC 302316
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 15N17W TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT 
TO 6N30W 3N40W 4N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S 
OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
FURTHER W ALONG 9N52W 5N50W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 44W-61W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N80W 23N84W 20N86W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
REMAINS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 93W. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER 
TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND THE NW GULF. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION 
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT 
...THE FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 23N84W 20N86W 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1008 MB 
LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N81W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 
22N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-21N BETWEEN 79W-84W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N65W TO 27N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N 
BAHAMAS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W 
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N65W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 23N46W 17N49W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
17N-22N BETWEEN 39W-44W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA