000 AXNT20 KNHC 301731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 4N24W TO NEAR 2N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 1N37W TO NEAR 2N42W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 19W-33W...AND S OF 10N W OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS... RUNNING PARALLEL WITH THE N-WRN COAST OF CUBA...AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 24N81W 23N84W 21N86W. THIS BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD AND N-WRN ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT PREVAIL ON THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 87W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOCUSES ON THE WRN AND S-WRN BASINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW BASIN ALONG 21N86W TO NEAR 16N86W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E AND SE OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM INLAND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR THE CITY OF SANTA CLARA...SOUTHWARD ALONG 18N82W TO A 1008 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL GYRE AROUND 13N81W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W OF 76W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...THE MONSOON GYRE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NRN COSTA RICA TO THE LOW CENTER...THEN TO THE NRN COLOMBIA COAST WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 13N W OF 73W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA... WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. THIS IS DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N70W. DESPITE THE NATURE OF THIS FLOW...THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT COMING FROM THE SW ATLC BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD AND N-WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N67W THAT CONTINUES SW TO 26N74W... BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100-130 NM N OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W AND 32N32W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N44W TO 17N47W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 40W-44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA