000 AXNT20 KNHC 301150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 12N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO 04N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 19W-29W...AND FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE CONUS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N89W TO A BASE NEAR 22N97W. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY LINKED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...AS OF 30/0900 UTC A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W AND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NW OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT PREVAIL ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ANALYZED FROM 30N94W TO 22N98W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N91W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SE CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN W OF 70W FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N63W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 14N85W. WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED AND ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N82W TO 17N82W TO 23N83W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 75W-85W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE W OF 77W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONVECTIVELY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...PASSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EAST OF A LINE FROM 18N71W TO 11N64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN US SEABOARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W THAT CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N81W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EAST N OF 26N...AND 90 NM WEST N OF 25N OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY FAIR OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 16N48W TO 25N43W AS A REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 38W-42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN