000
AXNT20 KNHC 292355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER WEST AFRICA AND ENTERS THE 
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W. IT CONTINUES S ALONG 13N18W 6N18W 3N25W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N25W TO 4N30W 8N40W 6N50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-30W... 
AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 44W-54W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA 
TO W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 23N83W 18N90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT 
OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO S OF 27N. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE N GULF AND THE 
NORTH GULF STATES N OF 27N. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF 
THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF MOVING E. THIS 
TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF 
STARTING IN 24 HOURS. IN THE MEANWHILE...EXPECT...THE FRONT TO 
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED 
CONVECTION.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN FROM 19N83W 13N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 79W-86W. FURTHER S...A MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 73W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W 
TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO 
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE N BAHAMAS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
SW TO 24N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ALONG 27N43W 19N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 37W-41W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N66W TO S FLORIDA WITH 
CONVECTION.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA