000 AXNT20 KNHC 291755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST ALONG 13N/14N AND 16W/17W NEAR THE SENEGAL/GAMBIA BORDER. IT CURVES TO 12N18W 6N18W AND 3N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N27W TO 6N34W 8N41W AND 6N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 6W AND 30W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A COLD FRONT...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA...THROUGH 21N93W 25N90W BEYOND 32N79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CYCLONIC FLOW LAGS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN/GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N79W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... CURVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE PENINSULA... AND EVENTUALLY CURVING INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS IN ONE PRECIPITATION CELL ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TO 22N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND 19N97W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 12N TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W 11N81W... BEYOND 10N IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 74W. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 14N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N61W IN THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N61W TO 15N67W...TO 14N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W. PASSING RAINSHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW HELPED TO GIVE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.69 INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 29/1200 UTC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT WAS IN PLACE DURING THE TIME OF RINA...REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BEYOND 32N CROSSING 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N43W SOUTHWESTWARD...THROUGH 21N61W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N25W TO 30N36W...26N40W...TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N41W. A WEAKENING TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N41W TO 18N50W 14N53W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N61W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N61W TO 15N67W...TO 14N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 44W AND 62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS ARE REACHING THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ARE IN THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 19N TO 28N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 38W AND 39W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N43W TO 32N50W 28N63W AND 26N71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT