000 AXNT20 KNHC 290542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W ALONG 5N27W TO 7N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-43W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-23W AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 6N23W TO 11N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 41W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 24N89W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN THEN EXTENDS NW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF RINA IS A 1009 MB LOW THAT AT 29/0300 UTC IS CENTERED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N84W TO 23N86W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO EVERGLADES CITY TO KEY WEST FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N E OF 84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF LINE FROM 28N87W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT EVENING THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY SUN THROUGH EARLY MON THEN PUSH S ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN LATER MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SW ACROSS MUCH OF THE N GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF RINA IS A 1009 MB LOW THAT AT 29/0300 UTC IS CENTERED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 18N81W 15N82W TO 12N81W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 12N TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI BETWEEN 73W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 12N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 71W TO OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. REMNANTS OF RINA WILL DRIFT NE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT S INTO LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE SW SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO BEYOND 32N68W COVERING THE W ATLC AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER CUBA W OF 76W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N W OF 74W TO OVER NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 33N28W THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W TO ALONG 30N70W AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N40W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 22N42W TO 21N43W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N38W TO 25N40W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 17N45W TO 14N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA EARLY SAT BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA SUN AND LIFT NORTHWARD MON AS LOW PRES FORMS ON THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL TRACK QUICKLY NE WITH A NEW COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW